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A common element is the interaction of economic and political influences, broadly described as political economy. Comparative economic systems studies the relative performance and behaviour of different economies or systems.

Export-Import Bank defines a Marxist—Leninist state as having a centrally planned economy. Theory typically proceeds with an assumption of ceteris paribus , which means holding constant explanatory variables other than the one under consideration.

When creating theories, the objective is to find ones which are at least as simple in information requirements, more precise in predictions, and more fruitful in generating additional research than prior theories. In microeconomics , principal concepts include supply and demand , marginalism , rational choice theory , opportunity cost , budget constraints , utility , and the theory of the firm. In development economics , slower growth in developed nations has been sometimes predicted because of the declining marginal returns of investment and capital, and this has been observed in the Four Asian Tigers.

Sometimes an economic hypothesis is only qualitative , not quantitative. At a higher level of generality, Paul Samuelson 's treatise Foundations of Economic Analysis used mathematical methods beyond graphs to represent the theory, particularly as to maximizing behavioural relations of agents reaching equilibrium.

The book focused on examining the class of statements called operationally meaningful theorems in economics, which are theorems that can conceivably be refuted by empirical data.

Economic precepts occur throughout the writings of the Boeotian poet Hesiod and several economic historians have described Hesiod himself as the "first economist".

Joseph Schumpeter described Aquinas as "coming nearer than any other group to being the "founders' of scientific economics" as to monetary , interest, and value theory within a natural-law perspective. Two groups, later called "mercantilists" and "physiocrats", more directly influenced the subsequent development of the subject.

7) When a problem is difficult to quantify, it may be necessary to develop unspecific objectives.

Both groups were associated with the rise of economic nationalism and modern capitalism in Europe. Mercantilism was an economic doctrine that flourished from the 16th to 18th century in a prolific pamphlet literature, whether of merchants or statesmen.

It held that a nation's wealth depended on its accumulation of gold and silver. Nations without access to mines could obtain gold and silver from trade only by selling goods abroad and restricting imports other than of gold and silver. The doctrine called for importing cheap raw materials to be used in manufacturing goods, which could be exported, and for state regulation to impose protective tariffs on foreign manufactured goods and prohibit manufacturing in the colonies.

Physiocrats believed that only agricultural production generated a clear surplus over cost, so that agriculture was the basis of all wealth. Thus, they opposed the mercantilist policy of promoting manufacturing and trade at the expense of agriculture, including import tariffs. Physiocrats advocated replacing administratively costly tax collections with a single tax on income of land owners.

In reaction against copious mercantilist trade regulations, the physiocrats advocated a policy of laissez-faire , which called for minimal government intervention in the economy. The publication of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations in , has been described as "the effective birth of economics as a separate discipline.

Smith discusses potential benefits of specialization by division of labour , including increased labour productivity and gains from trade , whether between town and country or across countries. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.

Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was no part of it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. Thomas Robert Malthus used the concept of diminishing returns to explain low living standards. Human population , he argued, tended to increase geometrically, outstripping the production of food, which increased arithmetically.

Quantitative Analysis for Management, 12th Edition

The force of a rapidly growing population against a limited amount of land meant diminishing returns to labour. The result, he claimed, was chronically low wages, which prevented the standard of living for most of the population from rising above the subsistence level. Ricardo saw an inherent conflict between landowners on the one hand and labour and capital on the other.

He posited that the growth of population and capital, pressing against a fixed supply of land, pushes up rents and holds down wages and profits. Ricardo was the first to state and prove the principle of comparative advantage , according to which each country should specialize in producing and exporting goods in that it has a lower relative cost of production, rather relying only on its own production.

Mill pointed to a distinct difference between the market's two roles: allocation of resources and distribution of income.


The market might be efficient in allocating resources but not in distributing income, he wrote, making it necessary for society to intervene. Smith wrote that the "real price of every thing Smith maintained that, with rent and profit, other costs besides wages also enter the price of a commodity. Classical economics focused on the tendency of any market economy to settle in a final stationary state made up of a constant stock of physical wealth capital and a constant population size.

Marxist later, Marxian economics descends from classical economics. It derives from the work of Karl Marx. The first volume of Marx's major work, Das Kapital , was published in German in However, when weighted moving av- erages were used, the MAD was 5.

Moving 3-Year Abs. Using the forecasts in the previous problem we obtain the absolute deviations given in the table below.

Trend line MA Year Demand deviation deviation deviation 1 4 — — 0. Deviation 1 4, 5, 1, 2 6, 4, 1, 3 4, 5, 1, 4 5, 4, 4, 5 10, 5, 5, 4, 5, 6 8, 7, 6, 1, 7 7, 7, 6, 8 9, 8, 1, 6, 2, 9 12, 8, 3, 7, 4, 10 14, 10, 4, 8, 5, 11 15, 12, 2, 10, 4, Total: To answer the discussion questions, two forecasting models are required: Once the actual forecasts have been made, their accuracy can be compared using the mean absolute differences MAD.

Because a three-period average forecasting method is used, forecasts start for period 4. MAD for moving average is 2. MAD for weighted average is 2. Moving average forecast for February is Weighted moving average forecast for February is Thus, based on this analysis, the moving average appears to be more accurate. The forecast for February is about There are many other factors to consider, including seasonality and any underlying causal variables such as advertising budget.

The total MAD is 2. RSFE is consistently positive. Tracking signal exceeds 2 MADs at week This could indicate a problem. See the accompanying table for a comparison of the calculations for the exponen- tially smoothed forecasts using constants of 0. Students should note how stable the smoothed values for the 0. When compared to actual week 25 calls of 85, the 0.

On the basis of the forecast error, the 0. However, other smoothing constants need to be examined. If the initial forecast is 40, the forecast for time period 25 is If the initial forecast is 60, the forecast for time period 25 is This illustrates how little impact the initial forecast has on fore- casts many periods into the future when the smoothing constant is higher.

Either approach is considered valid. Note that in this problem, the initial forecast for the first period was not used in computing the MAD. Then specify Centered Moving Average and we have the following results: Quarter 1: The slope is The slope of 2. The results are statistically significant.

The first quarter has a high seasonal index, so the first observation was very large relative to the last observation.

Thus, by looking at the raw data, which was used for the trend line in part a , it appeared that there was a negative trend but in reality this was due to the seasonal variations and not due to trend. The decomposition method is better to use when there is a seasonal pattern pre- sent.

For a smoothing constant of 0.

Year Rate Forecast Error 1 7. To compute a seasonalized or adjusted sales forecast, we just multiply each seasonal index by the appropriate trend forecast. Quarter I: The total sales in year 1 is 1,, and the total sales in year 2 is 1, Thus, there is no trend and the seasonal indices can be calculated using an overall average.

When these are adjusted for seasonality using the seasonal indices shown above, the forecasts are: Fall 0. Using QM for Windows, the forecast is 13, However, other values for the two smoothing constants might result in better forecasts and a lower MSE.

With a smoothing constant of 0. Using QM for Windows, the best smoothing constant is 0. This gives the lowest MSE of 2,, The forecast for January would be 1.

The MSE with the trend equation is 0. The MSE with time period 1 included with this exponential smoothing model is 0.

If time period 1 is omitted, this is 0. Using Excel, the trend line is: The trend line found using Excel is: Note these coefficients are rounded. Note these coeffi- cients are rounded. The regression equation from Excel is: Note these co- efficients are rounded. If the crime rate is The trend line coefficients from Excel are rounded for deposits is: The trend line coefficients from Excel are rounded for GSP is: The forecasts are: Because we are interested in annual attendance and there are six years of data, we find the average attendance in each year shown in the table below.

A graph of this indicates a linear trend in the data. Year Average Attendance 2. Another possibility is to raise the prices of the best seats while leav- ing the end zone prices more reasonable. The scatter plot of the data shows a definite seasonal pattern with higher sales in the winter months and lower sales in the summer and fall months.

There is a slight upward trend as evi- denced by the fact that for each month, the sales increased from the first year to the second, and again form the second year to the third. A trend line based on the raw data is found to be: However, as previously noted, sales are increasing. The high seasonal index in January and Feb- ruary causes the trend line on the unadjusted data to appear to have a negative slope.

There is a definite seasonal pattern and a definite trend in the data.

Month Unadjusted forecast Seasonal index Adjusted forecast January The instructor can use this question to have the student calculate a simple linear regression, using real-world data. The attendance would be the dependent variable and time would be the in- dependent variable. From the attendance, the expected revenues could be determined.

If You're a Student

Also, the instructor can broaden this question to include several other forecast techniques. For example, exponential smoothing, last-period demand, or n-period moving averages can be assigned.For Robbins, the insufficiency was solved, and his definition allows us to proclaim, with an easy conscience, education economics, safety and security economics, health economics, war economics, and of course, production, distribution and consumption economics as valid subjects of the economic science.

Use of Simple Models.

On the basis of the forecast error, the 0. Also, the instructor can broaden this question to include several other forecast techniques. The forecast for February is about Daily data would have 7 seasons because there are 7 days in a week.

A trend line based on the raw data is found to be: The forecast based on the trend line using the deseasonalized data is multiplied by the ap- propriate seasonal index to adjust that forecast for the seasonal component. Thus, by looking at the raw data, which was used for the trend line in part a , it appeared that there was a negative trend but in reality this was due to the seasonal variations and not due to trend.

According to Milton Friedman and monetarists, market economies are inherently stable if the money supply does not greatly expand or contract.